Kampala, Uganda | URN | Uganda could gain an additional US$899 million in gross domestic product (GDP) over ten years from artificial intelligence (AI), but millions of young people who could drive that growth risk being left behind because they cannot afford reliable internet access, electricity and the technology needed to use AI tools.
A new study by the Ayre Think Tank identifies Uganda’s youthful entrepreneurial population as a potential source of economic growth through AI. However, it warns that the infrastructure and skills needed to turn that opportunity into businesses, jobs and higher incomes remain unevenly distributed.
The Ayre Index, released on November 5, 2026, ranks Uganda 23rd among 56 Commonwealth countries for youth AI readiness, with a score of 47 out of 100, below the study’s benchmark of 53.
Uganda ranks just behind Kenya, which is 22nd, but ahead of Tanzania at 25th and Rwanda at 47th.
Applying scenarios developed by the International Monetary Fund to Uganda’s economy, researchers estimate that AI could increase the country’s GDP level by US$899 million after ten years under a moderate scenario.
The projected gain ranges from US$434 million under a conservative scenario to US$1.364 billion under an optimistic scenario.
These are potential increases in the size of the economy, not guaranteed earnings or annual additions to GDP.
Realising them will depend on how effectively Uganda expands access to technology and equips its population to use it productively.
The challenge is that the young people expected to drive this growth are not starting from equal positions.
Data analysed by the researchers indicates that 41.9 per cent of Ugandans aged 18 to 29 were starting or running new businesses, while 20.6 per cent owned established businesses. Uganda has approximately 13.4 million people aged between 15 and 29, giving the country a substantial pool of potential entrepreneurs and workers.
For these businesses, AI could help reduce operating costs, improve marketing, reach customers, manage records and expand access to markets. However, such benefits depend on access to the technology in the first place.
The study found that electricity reaches only 55.3 per cent of Uganda’s population, fewer than half of young people report using the internet, and high mobile-data costs restrict access, particularly among poorer households.
This creates a risk that businesses already connected to reliable electricity, affordable data and digital infrastructure will capture a disproportionate share of the benefits, while small enterprises operating in less-connected communities struggle to participate.
The concern goes beyond access to AI applications. Young entrepreneurs also need the skills to use the technology, assess its output and adapt it to their businesses and local markets.
The researchers found that available information was insufficient to assess Uganda’s digital and AI skills adequately.
Although a 2026 survey involving 609 volunteers indicated encouraging signs of AI adoption, the evidence was not sufficient to score the country’s digital and AI skills.
This information gap makes it difficult to establish how widely AI is being used by young Ugandans, whether adoption is translating into productive economic activity and which groups are being excluded.
Uganda has begun initiatives to address some of these challenges. In July 2026, 83 young innovators joined a government-backed entrepreneurship programme intended to help turn technology ideas into businesses.
Another 144 young Ugandans graduated from a United Nations-backed digital skills initiative covering artificial intelligence, software development and cybersecurity.
While these programmes provide an entry point, their reach needs to be considered against the country’s 13.4 million young people.
The numbers also raise questions about how training opportunities can be expanded beyond selected groups to reach young entrepreneurs in rural and underserved communities.
Calvin Ayre, founder of the Ayre Think Tank, said the economic benefits of AI would not be restricted to wealthy countries if young people were given the necessary skills and opportunities.
“I’ve spent my life in businesses where new technology changes everything, and I know you can’t stand still. AI is going to change how we work, how we do business, and how wealth is created. But this is not a race that only the biggest or richest countries can win. What matters is giving young people the skills and the chance to get ahead, whether to start businesses, find jobs or build something for themselves,” Ayre said.
The White Paper accompanying the index identifies five priorities for governments: affordable and reliable access to technology, education that develops practical skills, stronger pathways from training into employment and entrepreneurship, AI tools adapted to local languages and needs, and safeguards that allow people to question decisions made by automated systems.
Professor C. Justin Robinson, Pro Vice-Chancellor and Campus Principal of the University of the West Indies, Five Islands Campus, said young people should not be limited to consuming AI products developed elsewhere but should also participate in developing and governing the technology.
“We need to make sure that the next generation will be able to do more than just consume AI products made elsewhere. Access must come with its own agency and a real equitable stake in how these systems are governed,” Robinson said.
He argued that young people should be equipped to question AI tools, improve them and develop alternatives suited to their own needs.
The Ayre Index draws on 1,128 research sources to examine conditions affecting approximately 732 million young people across the 56 Commonwealth countries. It was launched during the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Antigua and Barbuda.
Without wider access to electricity, affordable connectivity, devices and practical training, the projected GDP gains risk being concentrated among businesses and individuals who are already digitally connected, rather than becoming a broad-based source of economic opportunity.
